Interview of J. Scott Armstrong for the International Journal on Forecasting

Structured analogies for forecasting

People often use analogies when forecasting, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure whereby experts list analogies, rate their similarity to the target, and match outcomes with possible target outcomes. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the information. When predicting decisions made in eight conflict situations, unaided experts' forecasts w...

Illusions in Regression Analysis

Soyer and Hogarth’s article, “The Illusion of Predictability,” shows that diagnostic statistics that are commonly provided with regression analysis lead to confusion, reduced accuracy, and overconfidence. Even highly competent researchers are subject to these problems. This overview examines the Soyer-Hogarth findings in light of prior research on illusions associated with regression analysis. ...

p . 8 “ Interview of J . Scott Armstrong ” for the International Journal of Fore - casting , By Fred Collopy , Case Western Reserve University

been my teacher, collaborator, and friend. He is an iconoclastic thinker, a passionate and persistent scholar, and a warm human being. He is one of only two members of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) who has attended every single International Symposium on Forecasting. His contributions to the Institute, the two journals, several popular websites and the fields of forecasting a...

Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time series. Judgmental coding of these features is expensive and the reliability of the ratings is modest. We developed and automated heuristics to detect six features that had previously been judgment...

Forecasting Principles